All about money: August 2007

Friday, August 31, 2007

Excessive

Wednesday brought a complete recovery of yesterdays losses plus a little, but on split volume. Tuesdays drop was excessive and todays recovery was excessive, Im seeing a pattern here! The market is on vacation and marking time (that means standing in place moving but going no where, like treading water) so far this week. As we near the end of the week and economic data picks up that could very well change. Nas Composite was down -60.61 yesterday and up 62.52 leaving us pretty much at a wash. But the reversal did not let the break of the 200dma confi[...]

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[Source: The Money Blogs]

We Live In A Many-media World With New Forms Of Media

We went through a multi-media world in the early 1990s, which meant documents that mixed text, with hypertext, with photos, with video, with sound.We now live in a many-media world in which we have all of the above but fragmented into many unique media channels and formats we could not have imagined just a few years ago. YouTube, Facebook and Twitter are some of the latest but by no means the last of the new forms of media. Technologies such as RSS will create many more.Today’s media companies have to support many-media publishing: podcasts, vidcasts, sms, blogs, social n[...]

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[Source: The Money Blogs]

Short-term Trend Changes

NOTE: Please click on the charts below to enlarge them if they do not appear clearly.Following through on Monday’s weakness, stocks suffered a damaging round of broad-based losses yesterday. After gapping lower on the open, the major indices moved steadily lower throughout the morning, consolidated near their lows at mid-day, then plunged to new lows in the final hour of trading. The S&P 500, Nasdaq Composite, and S&P Midcap 400 indexes each plummeted 2.4%, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 2.1%. The small-cap Russell 2000 lost 2.7%, maintai[...]

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[Source: The Money Blogs]

Oil Service And Biotech ETFs Poised For Breakout

NOTE: Please click on the charts below to enlarge them if they do not appear clearly.Creating an unusual mirror image of the previous day’s action, yesterday’s broad market strength nearly matched Tuesday’s weakness. All of the major indices gained approximately 2% or more and finished at their intraday highs. The Nasdaq Composite cruised 2.5% higher, the S&P 500 rallied 2.2%, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average advanced 1.9%. The small-cap Russell 2000 and S&P Midcap 400 indices were higher by 2.5% and 2.4% respectively. Despite whipsaw [...]

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[Source: The Money Blogs]

Can The Russell 2000 Repeat 2006?

Back in 2006 the Russell 2000 peaked in May and then went through a 6 week correction in which it lost over 14% (points A to B). This was then followed by a brief oversold rally in which the Russell 2000 gained nearly 9% (points B to C) which was then followed by a retest of the June low (points C to D). After the retest of the June low this led to a favorable Double Bottom pattern in the Russell 2000 which was then followed by a strong rally from August through February. Meanwhile in the near term the Russell 2000 fell 14% from mid July through mid [...]

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[Source: The Money Blogs]

MLPS Hit The 200 Day Moving Average Wall

Yesterday was not fun with the MLP index down 4 1/2 points at 302 and backing away from the 200 day movning average which sits around 310. Looks like support has become resistence and mlps will continue to get suckered down by whatever the overall market does. Just about every MLP was down yesterday except for Linn Energy (LINE) which was up just a few pennies.

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[Source: The Money Blogs]

Edmonton Real Estate Stats - What To Expect Next Week

Well, next week the much anticipated press release from the Realtor’s Association of Edmonton will come out, and along with it our charts and analysis of the real estate market. For the past few months Sheldon and I have been watching the listing inventory rise, and predicting a price correction. We called for it in June and July and it didn’t come (statistically) and then received plenty of angry emails and comments that we were fear mongering. Sales were down (5 year low), listings were up (record high) and despite this the average price held very strong, which shows the resi[...]

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[Source: The Money Blogs]

Chiggity Check Yourself

Sage advice from Pepper Brooks, color dodgeball commentator for ESPN8, The Ocho (second reference this week).I wrote up an [...]

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[Source: The Money Blogs]

High TRIN Values Vs S&P 500 Short Term Performance

On Tuesday the TRIN closed at 3.93 which is an extremely high reading as since 1987 the TRIN has only had 27 other occurrences with a daily close above 3.0. My research shows that when the TRIN has closed above 3.0 this has been followed by a short term rally in the S&P 500 as shown by the table below. As you can see since 1987 there has only been once occurrence (11/15/1991) when the S&P 500 didn’t rally 1% or more within 5 days after the TRIN has risen above 3.0. Furthermore the average maximum gain over the 5 day period has been 4.3% while over a 10 day[...]

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[Source: The Money Blogs]

Wednesday, August 29, 2007

Contrarian Stock Market Investing Guide

We always find it important to test our current market hypothesis against the prevailing market wisdom. Since we are contrarians and tend to run against the herd, we constantly need to check ourselves against the crowd to ensure our market assumptions are fresh and unique. That said, here is our contrarian stock market investing guide for today: In the Bullish camp we hear a lot of talk about how the markets will bounce back as they always do from the current slump. This Perma Bull outlook seems unrealistic to us especially in light of the current unprecedented credi[...]

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[Source: The Money Blogs]

Whatever Happened To The XLE-USO Spread?

Recently Mr. Teetor, a subscriber of mine, has posted an enthusiastic comment on trading the XLE-USO spread that I suggested. While Mr. Teetor has a lot of success trading this spread, I must say that I have lost faith in the cointegrating characteristic of this spread because of two reasons: 1) The spread appeared to have experienced a regime-shift since the historic backtest period before August 2006: th[...]

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[Source: The Money Blogs]

Boats Backing Up?

Enroute north yesterday near Roseburg, Oregeon, we went past one of the manufacturing facilities for Bayliner, a maker of recreational boats.Having no idea whether or not this is normal (it certainly didn’t look normal) this is being passed along in the event that anyone else might have some insight.Out in front of the large buildings where standard Bayliners from 2[...]

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[Source: The Money Blogs]

Give us all 30 minutes free parking

Ken Livingstone and Boris Johnson are set to slug it out to become London's Mayor. Here's a vote winner they could adopt - 30 minutes free parking in all spaces

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[Source: This is Money | Money blog]

New On Techone: Startups Start Up At Buck’s Diner; Getting Around It Roadblocks

Breakfast with JamisValerie Cunningham interviews Jamis McNiven, the owner of Buck’s Diner, in Woodside, Calif. This is where many of Silicon Valley’s most famous companies got their start: pitching their business plans in breakfast meetings with local VCs.

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[Source: The Money Blogs]

Volatility Index Suggests Near Term Correction Possible

The major averages have rallied from 7% to 8% in 7 trading days since the August 16th lows. Meanwhile the Volatility Index (VXO) has dropped 46% since then as well (points A to B). In the past when the VXO has dropped significantly (points C to D) after making a substantial move higher this has been followed by a drop in the S&P 500 (points E to F) ranging from 2% to 9%. Thus in the near term it’s likely there is going to be some type of pullback with at least a 2% to 3% drop certainly possible. At this time I would be surprised [...]

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[Source: The Money Blogs]

Where’s The Volume?

NOTE: Please click on the charts below to enlarge them if they do not appear clearly.Stocks wrapped up the week on a positive note, as each of the main stock market indexes scored solid gains. Unlike most of the recent "up" days, they also trended steadily higher intraday, rather than simply gapping on the open. The Nasdaq Composite gained 1.4%, the S&P 500 1.2%, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average 1.1%. Both the small-cap Russell 2000 and S&P Midcap 400 indexes matched the Nasdaq’s 1.4% advance. All of the major indices finished at their [...]

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[Source: The Money Blogs]

Help I’m Trapped In My House!

U.S. consumers have been feeling a little anxiety recently as home prices drop in many markets and inventories rise. Loans are harder to get and houses are getting harder to sell. This housing trap may bring volatility into the financial markets with this week’s data. Last week we were all a little surprised to see new home sales pop up a little. It had a very supportive affect on the equity market in the US and I think contributed to the trend on the EUR/USD. However, the news really wa[...]

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[Source: The Money Blogs]

Some Charts Of Interest In My Book!

On a morning where there is nothing going on in the group; we have no corporate news and no upgrades or downgrades, i thought i’d throw up a few charts and take a look at where we are and where we are going.Most of these charts are still in recovery mode from the big selloff earlier in th[...]

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[Source: The Money Blogs]

Go Browns!!

I am taking off for Cleveland tomorrow to take my 3-yr old daughter to visit my parents. Thanks Mr. Market for spiking volatility the day before my trip. Figures.Anyway, my blogging activity will likely be sporadic at best until I get back on Monday. I put a little cash to work at the end of the day today, but also kept some powder dry. The market breadth was ugly:The ARMS Index closed at 3.23Downside volume on the NYSE totalled 93%The put/call ratios soared to elevated levels<[...]

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[Source: The Money Blogs]

August 27th Blogger Sentiment Poll

This week’s poll remains bullish, although many bloggers have moved to neutral. Read More...

[Source: The Money Blogs]

"it’s Going To Be A Little Worse [in Marin] Than People Think"

Gee, ya think?This really pisses me off. It looks like the Marin IJ and Marin realtors are reading this blog after all:The Marin "REIC" is finally starting to admit (two years too late, it seems to me) that Marin’s market is not immune and is starting to crack. Of course, you have to r[...]

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[Source: The Money Blogs]

The New California Gold Rush: Facebook Apps

I spent Saturday afternoon in Palo Alto crammed into a room filled with about a hundred developers who were trading tips and sharing presentations on creating Facebook apps.The enthusiasm was electric, it felt like the Homebrew Club, early pioneers encouraging each other.Facebook has overwhelmed the web 2.0 social media sector in the same way hurricane Katrina overwhelmed New Orleans. It is a dramatic metaphor but a fair one. If you are not thinking about developing Facebook apps then you should be. I’ve got great vide[...]

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[Source: The Money Blogs]

Strategy Of The Week: Hewlett Packard In-the-money Covered Call

By John Manley DMSThe Technical PictureDuring the recent sell off, HPQ displayed a lot of relative strength vs. the overall markets. While many stocks were being slammed down to their lower 2 standard deviation Bollinger bands, HPQ was essentially able to maintain strong technical support around the middle 50 period moving average (See chart below- click to enlarge) at the $46 level. This type of price action is interesting and got my radar up for a potential long play on the stock.

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[Source: The Money Blogs]

There Goes The 200 Day

For now anyway.[...]

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[Source: The Money Blogs]

Short Oil, Then Go Long

We have been making money lately, selling call options at $90, when the market rises past $75. Our thinking is that oil probably wont make $80, and then only in spikes. At more than $60 a barrel, demand is soft, probably flat. Things have to go wrong for oil to rise above that much. But now a surprise: It looks like a good time to sell put options, especially November options at $60. The NYMEX futures market is no longer trading on anything that resembles fundamentals. There is plenty of oil, and world demand grew by 0.7 percent last year, probably less this year. Maybe even n[...]

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[Source: The Money Blogs]

Should I Invest In International Reit Funds?

Should I invest in international REIT funds to increase diversification? If so, what proportion should I allocate to U.S. vs. international?International REIT funds are a good diversifier. In our present all equity portfolio we recommend 10 percent in a U.S. REIT fund. If you are going to add an international REIT fund, I suggest you reduce your U.S. REIT to 5 percent and apply the other 5 percent to the international REIT fund. Two international REIT fund[...]

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[Source: The Money Blogs]

Can He Be Right?

Jeremy Grantham is quoted in this Marketwatch article saying the S&P 500 could lose 40% between late 2008 and the end of 2010.We may all be as mad as this gu[...]

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[Source: The Money Blogs]

Saturday, August 25, 2007

Boston Residential Real Estate Condo Sales, August 25, 2007

The following information is from the local MLS database, as of August 25, 2007, compared to (August 18, 2007).Total of condos for sale in the city of Boston: 2,293 (2,312)Average of days on market: 127 (129)Median price of all condos for sale in the city of Boston: $375,000 ($379,900)Average price of all condos for sale in the city of Boston: $568,627 ($563,724)Number of condos sold (closed) over past 30 days: 536 (510)Median sales price, last 30 days: $360,000 ($370,565)Average sales price, last 30 days: $436,425 ($448,611)Avera[...]

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[Source: The Money Blogs]

Gold Stock Market Quote Says Buy

A LOT of weak hands panicked and sold out near the bottom which is exactly what the Golden Bull needed before embarking on its next upmove.We try hard to formulate risk management techniques that prevent us from selling into these fire sale panics. One approach we have adopted is to remain focused on the long-term by shutting out todays gold price machinations. Thats why we keep a copy of this chart close at hand:

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[Source: The Money Blogs]

Free Loans

Bank of America came out with a no-cost mortgage loan program, earlier this year. Apparently, Washington Mutual has one of these, as well.The Bank of America plan offers a loan with no closing costs - no application fee, no appraisal fee, no credit report fee, plus you even get a $200 credit at closing (presumably to offset other fees charged by other parties).The Bank of America plan is only available to customers with an existing relationship with the bank.Sounds like a good deal.How can they do it? Through volume deals with settlement providers [...]

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[Source: The Money Blogs]

Open Houses: Worth It Or Worthless?

I read a NAR (National Association of Realtors) statistic once that said only 2% percent of homes sell through open houses. I can tell you that I think they are not far off from my point of view. My father on the other hand who is the king of open houses would disagree with me. Even if I am in Real Estate for another hundred years I probably wont come close to the number of sales through open houses[...]

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[Source: The Money Blogs]

The Ironic Hand Of God - The Need For A Right To Respond On The Internet

Earlier this year I wrote a post arguing that Google and other search engines should offer a link next to each result that offers a "right to respond." Because search engines will continually dredge up a post for ever, even if the original information is incorrect.Even if a separate post corrects that error, if it isn’t on that first page of search results individuals and companies, will have no way of clearing their names or correcting inaccurate information, because searchers rarely venture to second or third page results.Read More...

[Source: The Money Blogs]

Narrowly Mixed Session, With Indices Possibly Developing Topping Patterns

Narrowly Mixed Session, with Indices Possibly Developing Topping Patterns By Harry Boxer, The Technical Trader (www.thetechtrader.com) We had a pretty narrow session today and mixed at that. The day startedout with a small gap up. They went to new rally highs, and then quicklypulled back in the morning in a 5-wave decline that lasted tomid-session. Then they vacillated several times in the afternoon butcouldn’t break out above resistance or below support, and basicallymarked time. The Dow was down just 0.25, the S&P 500 down1.57, the Nasdaq [...]

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[Source: The Money Blogs]

Godaddy Gonna Stay On The Sidelines, This Super Bowl?

It would be shocking, but apparently GoDaddy is considering the idea of not running an advertisement during 2008’s Super Bowl.I thought you’d all want to know about this, asap.Founder Bob Parsons gives a rundown of the reasons they are reconsidering (I guess this isn’t new news?):Advertising during the Big Game is expensive.Advertising during the Super Bowl is "super" expensive. Consider that a 30 second spot is $2.7 million. Then figure 2 or 3 spots, then add another few million or so to produce several commercials we never seem to get the firs[...]

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[Source: The Money Blogs]

Friday, August 24, 2007

R We Clr?

Have you ever read an ad for a property like this:SUPR YR OLD HOME CLS TO LAKE/PARK. NEUT COLOURS. HI FRONT FOYER W/ CLST & 2 PC BATH. UPGRDED LINO & CARPT U/LAY.ARCH TO SPACIOUS LR O/LOOKING LGE BACKYARD W/C VENDOR WILL MAKE A $400 ALLOWANCE FOR SODDING OF REAR YRD BRIGHT WHITE KIT,PATIO DRS TO DNE TTE,M/F LA.3 BDRMS UP.M/B W/WI CLOSET & 4 PC ENS OVSZ DBL GAR. 1 HR NOTICE Unless your target demographic for your add is ex contestants of Jeopardy some people will give up trying to solve the puzzle. Just hope they wrote the description on purpos[...]

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[Source: The Money Blogs]

The Rate-cut Debate

I am seeing a real divergence of opinion amongst some great analysts out there about whether the Fed will be cutting rates in September and if they will, how much they will cut. The stock market in the U.S. has been performing well ever since the change to the discount rate last week. That has supported the price action on the USD/JPY. Having short term bond prices come down a little is also supportive to the EUR/USD. In the very short term things look like they may settle down a little,[...]

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[Source: The Money Blogs]

Invest In The Forex Without A Dealer

I conducted a survey on my website the other day to find out what else readers were investing in. Overwhelmingly, the answer was stocks and options. That was not a surprise. I talk to investors, all the time, that are experienced in the equities market and want to start working in the forex but are looking for a way to dip their toes in without getting in too deep until they are confident. There is a great way to do that with FX ETFs. [...]

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[Source: The Money Blogs]

An Important Point Of Reference

After the European Central Bank pumped another $50 billion or so into their banking system yesterday, the grand total of "liquidity injections" over the last two weeks by the Federal Reserve, ECB, Bank of Japan, and various other central banks around the world now stands at somewhere around $500 billion.Half a trillion dollars.Is that a lot?How would anyone know?What do you compare it to?The Gross Domestic Product for the U.S. is over $11 trillion (most of which is consumer spending) and the U.S. government’s annual budget is about $2[...]

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[Source: The Money Blogs]

What The F- Are You Talking About???

What the ...???In 1904, Lilliputia, an experimental community of little people on Coney Island, proved that weird things come in small packages. Located along the west promenade of the Dreamland amusement park (now the New York Aquarium), the 80&8242; x 175&8242; ’Midget City’ was built in proportion to its citizens: 300 dwarves lured away from sideshows. As paying customers gaped ... Source: Lilliputia - Time Out New YorkAlso: Read More...

[Source: The Money Blogs]

I Blew Up My Trading Account

I blew up my first account when I started trading in the forex market, and I’m extremely grateful that I did. I learned invaluable lessons as I panicked, raged and wept. Those lessons have helped me tremendously as I’ve weathered the storm during the past two weeks of market mayhem. I spent the first part of the week talking to many aspiring and current forex investors, and I heard a common theme from many of them: tales of woe. They had lost money, become discouraged and thoug[...]

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[Source: The Money Blogs]

Linkery

Hello everyone -- Econo-Almanac updates of late have been meager even by my modest standards. So what do I offer upon my return? An in-depth treatise, perhaps? A new and exciting piece of research? Maybe even just a chart?No, I&039;m afraid all that I have for you the blogging equivalent to a television show&039;s flashback episode -- the ever-popular list of links. Here we go! Partner in dim sum consumption crime and occasional Econo-Almanac guest contributor Ramsey Su appeared in the Read More...

[Source: The Money Blogs]

Will The Usd/cad Follow Oil?

While I recognize oil prices are not the only factor influencing the USD/CAD cross, it is certainly an important one. Since the first of August, crude prices have been dropping. That has not followed on the USD/CAD itself, which is a little unusual. The pair is at nearly the same price level now that it was on the first. I know we have been dealing with a credit crisis during that time that has been messing with currency prices across the board but that still seems to indicate that the l[...]

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[Source: The Money Blogs]

Countrywide Injection Eases Credit Crunch Fears

The market got a nice boost at the open, although as of this writing it is fading a bit. Last night, Bank of America (BAC) said it made a $2 billion investment in Countrywide (CFC). The news helped to ease some of the fears about the current credit crunch. It also emboldened overseas buyers, who sent the markets in Asian sharply higher across the board.This morning, the Fed has injected another $17 billion of reserves into the system. But the financial stocks arent’ really responding. This has some wondering if the strategy is[...]

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[Source: The Money Blogs]

Contractor Sues Owner / Lender Of Broadluxe Development

Yesterday, I took a ride down to NYC on Amtrak. Along the way I started talking with someone from AJ Martini, a big Boston (and now, Miami) construction contractor. We had a very interesting conversation about buildings and architecture. We eventually got around to discussing one of Martini’s (past) projects, Broadluxe.He shared some juicy gossip about Martini suing the project’s lender. I joked that I was going to post a story about it, but would refer to him as "a reliable source, speaking off the record".Guess I didn’t need to bother.Here’s what happened.<[...]

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[Source: The Money Blogs]

Benign Consolidation Day

Following yesterday’s solid accumulation day, today’s action is what I like to call benign consolidation. The markets weren’t down that much, and volume was relatively light. Not bad. Especially when the bears’ cheerleader Doug Kass was [...]

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[Source: The Money Blogs]

More Insdider Buying In Mlps

The buying of shares by corporate insiders using open market purchases continues. Add Crosstex LP (XTEX) and Legacy Reserves (LGCY) to the list as company big cheeses continue to advertise that their unit prices are undervalued and they are putting their own money on the poker table. As of this posting the yahoo link to LGCY does not have the new filing listed but that should change later tod[...]

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[Source: The Money Blogs]

Sectorology

There was an interesting flurry of comments yesterday regarding sector weightings. I left a chart up from Bespoke and made the comment that I believe in staying in touch with sect[...]

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[Source: The Money Blogs]

Thursday, August 23, 2007

YHOO Buys Game Ad Company

TickEx launches in U.S.[Mashable] Based in London, TixEx is a search engine that lets you browse for the best price on tickets for live events. With TickEx, you can find tickets for events like concerts, theater shows, and sports events. With its centralized search function, TickEx aggregates results and offers you a one-stop shop for finding tickets. Yahoo buys game mobile game ad company Actionality[VentureBeat] Actionality stic[...]

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[Source: The Money Blogs]

Overall Market Strength This Morning And Mlps Should Follow Along.

Based on these hideous looking charts there are a couple of positives beginning to emerge and that is that we are entitled to a trading rally. And we may be at the beginning of one today.Notice that the MLP index which has fallen off the cliff, crashed and burned has been stablizing. 2 trips do[...]

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[Source: The Money Blogs]

Is Everyone Trying To Game The Next Pullback?

The volatility index (VIX) has come down sharply from its spike higher last week. This means traders are pricing in a bit calmer markets going forward. And the news in the credit markets today, with the big banks borrowing at the disount wi[...]

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[Source: The Money Blogs]

Why It All Comes Back To The Dollar

One of the people I respect the most in the precious metals space is Jim Sinclair. His web site, www.jsmineset.com has been a remarkable source of information on gold as his over 30 years of experience is something that I have drawn on in my researching and understanding of the sector. Here is a recent article he wrote outlining the basic metrics for what will lead to a rally in gold. None of this is particularly secretive, but worth reviewing the underlying drivers for what has helped gold rally over the last five years, as well as what will compel it on its next leg higher:Always k[...]

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[Source: The Money Blogs]

Why Parting Ways With The Herd Is Sometimes A Good Idea

Have you ever wondered how it could be that so many people thought paying such stupid prices for houses during the housing bubble was a "good idea"? Have you ever wondered how anyone could think that "toxic" loans with teaser rates, resets, negative amortization, and all the rest was a "smooth move"? Have you been amazed by the foreclosure crisis engulfing our state? And the most mind-boggling of all... have you ever wondered why people fall for the offal disgorged from the mouths of real estate agents and realtors? Do you think it was all just mass greed? Or was there something else to it; so[...]

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[Source: The Money Blogs]

$400 Million Project Proposed For Parcel 7 (a.k.a., Left Field)

Great news.From the Herald:A local developer and the Boston Red Sox yesterday unveiled a $400 million plan to build offices, shops and apartments alongside and over the Massachusetts Turnpike near Fenway Park.Newton-based builder and prominent anti-gun activist John Rosenthal and the Red Sox presented the 1.2-million-square-foot One Kenmore proposal to a community review panel appointed by City Hall.The proposal envisions a mixed-used complex taking shape both next to and on a deck to be built over the Massachusetts Turnpike and between Brookline Avenue a[...]

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[Source: The Money Blogs]

Trade Update - Acme Packet (apkt)

Yesterday, I submitted a new buy recommedation to subscribers of the website I write for, RealMoney.com. The company is called Acme Packet (ACME). And the chart above shows where the stock stood as of yesterday’s close.The pro[...]

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[Source: The Money Blogs]

Positive Technicals In Mixed Session

Positive Technicals in Mixed SessionBy Harry Boxer, The Technical Trader (www.thetechtrader.com) The indices closed mixed at the end of the session, and the best partof the day was the mid-morning rally that worked its way through thelunch hour, but the afternoon was pretty much a consolidation of themorning rally. Nasdaq had a much better session today than the bluechips did, but the technicals were rather positive for a mixed session,and that augers well for more price progress.The day started out with some back and forth action early inth[...]

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[Source: The Money Blogs]

Tech Is Leading

Tuesday mixed close across the broader markets and mixed volume. The Nas 100, Nas Composite, S&P 500 all closed green and the Dow red on the day. Volume still dropping off from last week (as expected), the Nasdaq was slightly higher than yesterday and the NYSE was slightly lower. Gold closed down 50 cents at $666.00 an ounce. Crude down $1.40 at $69.56 a barrel, even with the hurricane picking up steam crude is still declining. With inventories out at 10:30 well see if the decline continues.

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[Source: The Money Blogs]

Wow

While looking for Marin IJ letters-to-the-editor regarding the humorous Ross flood abatement vote, I stumbled across this letter:Low-income housing a myth..."Low-income housing" is a euphemism for giving charity homes to people who failed in high school, failed to work hard and failed to earn a living wage; people who make their living sitting on a couch watching "Oprah." Why do they deserve to live in the same house on the same block as two-income families where each a[...]

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[Source: The Money Blogs]

S&P 500 Coming Into Major Resistance

NOTE: Please click on the charts below to enlarge them if they do not appear clearly.Like the previous day, stocks chopped around in a narrow range before finishing modestly higher. Blue chips showed relative weakness, causing the Dow Jones Industrial Average to slip 0.2%, but the Nasdaq Composite gained 0.5%. Both the S&P 500 and small-cap Russell 2000 ticked 0.1% higher, while the S&P Midcap 400 advanced 0.2%. This time, the major indices showed less conviction into the close and finished lower in their ranges. The Dow closed in the bottom third of its intrada[...]

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[Source: The Money Blogs]

Technical Difficulties

I’m fighting a nasty cold (thanks to my kids, who carry this stuff like the Outbreak monkey), so I was running a bit late this morning. It was nice to see the markets off to a good start when I got in, but Blogger was down and I couldn’t post.Anyway, you know that I don’t like strong market opens, but I was pleased to see this morning’s news. There was renewed dealmaking and M&A activity, which is pleasing to investors. First, there is chatter that TD Ameritrade (AMTD) and E*Trade (ETFC) may merge. I think that would be [...]

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[Source: The Money Blogs]

Should I Add More Growth Funds To My Portfolio?

I invested part of my IRA in what was your Vanguard Balanced Buy and Hold portfolio, before you added REITS and Inflation Protected Securities to the mix. This was my breakdown:10% Vanguard 500 index10% Vanguard Value index10% Vanguard Small Cap index10% Vanguard Small Cap Value index 16% Vanguard Developed Market index 16% Vanguard International Value8% Vanguard Emerging Market index10% Vanguard short-term Investment grade10% Vanguard Total Bond index Now, after the recent decline, Im looking at a [...]

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[Source: The Money Blogs]

Wednesday, August 22, 2007

Normal Day!...I Was Ready For This

Monday finally a NORMAL August day, a very quiet day relative to what weve had. But remember last night I talked about it slowing down and digesting last weeks activity. We cant have wild huge range days all the time. Todays mixed close left the Nas 100, Nas Composite, and the Dow green on lighter volume. S&P 500 closed slightly red and on lighter volume. Crude closed down 78 cents at $71.20 a barrel, September contract also expired today. Gold closed down 40 cents to $666.40 an ounce. [...]

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[Source: The Money Blogs]

Make airlines take responsibility for lost luggage

A friend of mine had her luggage lost by Easyjet for nearly two weeks was told there was nothing to be done but 'wait for it to turn up'. How do they get away with it?

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[Source: This is Money | Money blog]

Trade Update: Apple (AAPL) Short Term August Spread Produces 109% Gain

By John Manley DMSSometimes we can make great market volatility work in our favor. Back on August 02, I highlighted a short term Bull Put Spread on Apple going into August expiry. At the time, the spread had a max. profit potential of $560 or around a 16% return. (See original article). Because I continued to like the fundamental story of Apple, one of my risk management scenarios for the spread was to possibly be assigned the shares and then create new spreads based on the technical outlook at the time with share ownership. This is one of[...]

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[Source: The Money Blogs]

Bearish Sentiment And Market Bottoms

Since 1997 each time the 3 Week Average of Bearish Sentiment as tracked by Investors Intelligence has risen above the 35% level (points A) a bottom has occurred shortly thereafter in the S&P 500 followed by a substantial rally (points C to D) ranging from 20% to 54%. The last time the 3 Week Average of Bearish Sentiment rose above 35% was in the Summer of 2006 (point B) which was then followed by a 27% rally in the S&P 500 as it eventually rose back to its previous all time high (points E to F). Currently the 3 Week Average of Bearish Sentiment has ri[...]

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[Source: The Money Blogs]

Geothermal Heating Systems

Recently we listed a condo (www.millwoodscondo.com) that has a geo thermal heating system, and although I admit I have heard of them and some of the cool stuff about them I never really had to know about them until now. So I thought Id share some of the very interesting stuff I have learned. Although my clients paid close to $22,000 for their unit a few years back [...]

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[Source: The Money Blogs]

An Uneventful ’Inside Day’

NOTE: Please click on the charts below to enlarge them if they do not appear clearly.Stocks spent the first half of the day moving in a tight, sideways range, until a mid-day selloff pushed the major indices into negative territory. Modest buying interest in the final ninety minutes of trading enabled most of the main stock marked indexes to close slightly higher. The S&P 500, the only index to close lower, dipped less than 0.1%. The Nasdaq Composite and Dow Jones Industrial Average edged higher by 0.1% and 0.3% respectively. The small-cap Russell 2000 gained 0.2%, [...]

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[Source: The Money Blogs]

Tax Payers Against A Wall Street And Mortgage Bailout

Please consider this online petition against bailouts entitled "Tax Payers Against a Wall Street and Mortgage Bailout". All you have to do is "sign" and click a button. [...]

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[Source: The Money Blogs]

Marin’s Greenpoint Mortgage Closes Its Doors

Another one bites the dust:Citing market volatility and tight liquidity, the parent company of GreenPoint Mortgage shut down the Novato-based lender Monday and announced plans to cut 1,900 jobs, including 430 in the Novato area.GreenPo[...]

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[Source: The Money Blogs]

A Double-bottom In Sirf?

Growth stocks are continuing to outperform today, with the NDX +1.0% and the SPX +0.25% as of this post.One stock that I am involved in that looks to be finding some support is SiRF Tech (SIRF).[...]

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[Source: The Money Blogs]

Bernanke "Put"

Great Morning! The month of August has traditionally been one of the worst for short-term traders. Not this one. Intraday ranges and swings continue to be outsize and outstanding. No reason to believe that will change or end, either. Daily Chart: ES The S&P hit numerous layers of support last Thursday, and squeezed higher to the tune of 50+ points in the final hours of trading. Friday’s faux interest-rate cut kept the part[...]

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[Source: The Money Blogs]

Market Anxious Over Bernanke/paulson Meeting

The market had a nice rally into the close yesterday to offset the earlier weakness. The SPX looks to be consolidating a bit below its overhead 200-day. I would still like to see a follow-thru accumulation day this week. Absent that, there could be more selling pressure.This morning, there will be a meeting between Fed Chairman Bernanke, Treasury Sec. Paulson, and Senator Dodd. I’m not sure what it means, but hopefully they will come up with some good ideas to improve the current credit crunch. The Fed, for its part, injected [...]

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[Source: The Money Blogs]

Videos The Future Of Online Marketing

A real estate or mortgage website must have these two elements if it is to have a shot at success:A Unique Selling Proposition that drives its purpose.A Call to Action or offer.[...]

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[Source: The Money Blogs]

Google Ads Help Your Seo? I Get Asked..

Someone told me if you use Google Analytics and Adwords, you rankings will be higher. Do you agree?[...]

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[Source: The Money Blogs]

Consolidating The Rally

We got pretty much what I expected for most of the day, which was a consolidation of last week’s rally. The indices opened mixed, dropped a little bit, and then went to the morning highs rather quickly before fading right near the Friday highs. They were unable to punch through at that point, and then went into a 5-wave decline that lasted through mid-session, when they had a test of support that held. Then in the late afternoon they had a nice rally back that took the NDX from 1875 to 1899. The S&P 500 went from 1430 t0 more than 1450, and then the indices pulled back fro[...]

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[Source: The Money Blogs]

Million Dollar Sales In Boston

I already regret writing this.Anyway, for those of you who wanted the data, here are details on +$1 million real estate sales throughout the entire city of Boston, during the years 2004-2007 (data from the Listing Information Network, or LINK, which collects and reports sales in the city, from the Registry of Deeds).2004 - 393 sales, includes several One Charles, 34 Grandview, 6 Strada234, 9 Channel Center, and 73 Atelier 505(!) sales.2005 - 421 sales, includes 70 One Charles sales.2006 - 379 sales, includes 9 360 Newbury[...]

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[Source: The Money Blogs]

Parking By Association

The power of a professional association knows no bounds. It is like a Union for White Collar workers. I am no fan of the most Board of Realtors as I liken them to the worst of DMV stereotypes. But the following brings up very funny images to mind.[...]

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[Source: The Money Blogs]

Beware the ducks - the problems of a place in the sun

You can plan for every eventuality when you buy a foreign home but you still need to roll with the punches. And beware Counts bearing ducks

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[Source: This is Money | Money blog]

Tuesday, August 21, 2007

Cmhc Third Quarter Report

Time will tell how wrong people will be. Last week’s financial market turmoil saw frantic speculation about the end of all things. Low and behold the markets did not melt through to the core of the earth. So where to now? In my opinion we are under going a correction in pricing in Edmonton. I see that as something healthy for our market. Many are spinning it as a negative unwinding of doom and gloom. It is not e[...]

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[Source: The Money Blogs]

August 20th Blogger Sentiment Poll

The bullish sentiment continues... Read More...

[Source: The Money Blogs]

Orderly Pullback Not All Bad

I would have preferred the market to but up today, but there is still time. The market is a bit weak, some of which could be an options expiration hangover. But the selling seems orderly, and not panicky like last week.Growth stocks are outperforming, with the NDX -0.3% and the SPX -0.6%. Investor anxiety remains elevated with the ARMS Index at 1.41 and the CBOE put/call still high at 0.92. This weekend, the Market Vane survey hit its lowest reading since summer of 2003 (52% bullish).<[...]

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[Source: The Money Blogs]

Genealogy Days In Sweden

More than 6,000 people are expected to attend Genealogy Days 2007 in Halmstad, Sweden from August 24-26th. Besides the annual National Family History Show in the UK which attracts 15,000 visitors, I haven’t heard of a bigger genealogy fair in the world than this one. I’ll be there on the 24th and part of the 25th. If you represent an archive, library or society or work for a genealogy company from Europe or Scandinavia and would like to schedule a meeting for one of those days, please use the Read More...

[Source: The Money Blogs]

Through The Fly’s Eyes: Skybus Airlines

from Laurie Pasternack of Theflyonthewall.comNo Frills, No Problem: Skybus May be the Future of FlyingThink a $10 flight sounds baffling? Well, it’s becoming a reality in some areas, thanks to Skybus Airlines, a new and growing "no-frills, low-cost" carrier that is currently offering flights from Columbus to 11 cities nationwide. Why Columbus? Ohio’s capital, the state’s most densely-populated city, is also home to other popular companies like Abercrombie & Fitch (ANF), Limited Brands (LTD) and Wendy’s International Inc (WEN), all companies who cater to custo[...]

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[Source: The Money Blogs]

Strategy Of The Week: Bull Put Spread - Nasdaq 100 (NDX)

By John Manley DMSOptions expiry trading activities and a house full of visitors here in Southern California have kept me away from the enjoyment of posting articles for a few days. I apologize. Not to say that options expiry and playing tour guide can’t be a lot of fun (dinner at Mastro’s and Malibu sunsets are not to be missed), but I do miss sharing ideas with enthusiastic traders. Lets get back to business...The MarketsExpanded volatility remains the call of the day in the indices I trade. From a technical perspective it appears we are currently in an [...]

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[Source: The Money Blogs]

Summer Slump Of 2007: For Every 2 Sales, 3 Listings Failing In Ma

Two years ago, The Real Estate Cafe graphed summer sales versus expired listings in Massachusetts across a ten year period:[...]

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[Source: The Money Blogs]

Sly fox at the Post Office

Save our post offices:Toby Walne explains why he wishes the new fox-repelling device he has bought to protect his chickens would work on Post Office bosses

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[Source: This is Money | Money blog]

Flat And Happy

NOTE: Please click on the charts below to enlarge them if they do not appear clearly.Curiously following the previous day’s reversal pattern, the Feds announced a surprise rate cut last Friday morning that sparked a broad-based rally. The S&P 500 zoomed 2.5% higher, the Nasdaq Composite 2.2%, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average 1.8%. The small-cap Russell 2000 and S&P Midcap 400 indices gained 2.2% and 2.1% respectively. Based purely on the percentage gains, one might assume it was quite a bullish day, but the intraday price action of the broad market actually left [...]

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[Source: The Money Blogs]

Gary Kaltbaum

A reader left a link to an article by Gary Kaltbaum that included this table. [...]

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[Source: The Money Blogs]

Monday, August 20, 2007

Mapping Credit Crunch Casualties In Boston & Beyond

Inspired by today’s Boston Globe’s cover story entitled, "Mortgage crisis may hurt sales this fall" and i[...]

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[Source: The Money Blogs]

Ron Paul’s Statement On The Housing Bubble

Here is presidential-hopeful Ron Paul explaining that the Fed’s intervention in the economy is ultimately responsible for the housing bubble, not capitalism, not supply-and-demand, and not (directly anyway) lenders.But capitalism is no[...]

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[Source: The Money Blogs]

Ben Bernanke: You Must Resign

I dugg it.We all talk a lot of shit in our lives -- pretending to be who we wish we could be. We make up stories about things we’ve done or said which are nothing more than retellings of personal events as we wish they had been; retellings that po[...]

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[Source: The Money Blogs]

Saturday, August 18, 2007

Working Through The Bloodbath

9:55 PM San Francisco I want to apologize to everyonefor the lapse in posting as the market conditions, travel, and time to committhe type of explanation of what has transpired have all conspired to the intermissionin communiqus. My last post, two weeks ago, laid out what I believed to be avery compelling case for an imminent rally in gold and the metals complex, aswell as a concurrent decline in the US Dollar. This clearly did not take place.Instead a number of factors came into play in the market that have quicklyevolved into a situation that caugh[...]

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[Source: The Money Blogs]

Keep Your Eye On The Ball

As I sit here at 3 am staring at the epic stock market data tonight, I am tempted to share my analysis of yesterdays data in the hope that we will all make more profitable trades over the next several days. For instance, there were more than 1000 new 52 week lows yesterday. I could only find two other days in history that had that many new 52 week lows-once, in the 1987 crash and in August, 1998. I also see that the VIX hit another 4 year high (37.5). In addition, the NYSE had its highest volume day of all time yesterday. I could go on and on with superlatives to describe this mark[...]

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[Source: The Money Blogs]

Cepr "we Told You So" Article

Check out this PDF report from the Center for Economic and Policy Research entitled "Midsummer Meltdown: Prospects for the Stock and Housing Markets" (hat tip to the Housing Panic blog for the link). I’ll just cut to the chase and reprint the conclusion:Like Japan in the eighties, the United States has experienced a stock and real estate bubble developing side by side. While the bubbles in Japan collapsed simultaneously at [...]

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[Source: The Money Blogs]

Short-term Bottom Shaping Up?

NOTE: Please click on the charts below to enlarge them if they do not appear clearly.The market got off to a scary start yesterday morning, but key support of the prior lows from March enabled stocks to reverse their losses into the close. After trending lower throughout the first half of the session, the major indices bottomed just after mid-day. A choppy rally ensued that enabled stocks to erase their losses. Both the S&P 500 and Dow Jones Industrial Average were down 2.7% at their intraday lows, but the S&P actually finished 0.3% higher and the Dow trimmed its[...]

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[Source: The Money Blogs]

Fed Finally Wakes Up, Cuts Discount Rate

Thank you, Ben. The market surged at the open this morning after the Fed cut the usually symbolic discount rate. The FOMC unanimously voted to cut the rate at which the Fed lends funds to banks from 6.25% to 5.75%.This will have a more significant impact in terms of injecting liquidity into the system than the recent open market operations have had. It also opens the door for a cut in the fed funds rate at the upcoming September meeting. Here is a copy of the full statement from today:"Financial market conditions have deteriorated, and tighter[...]

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[Source: The Money Blogs]

The Value Of One News Post = $55m

By Tom ForemskiThe conventional wisdom as espoused by the aggregators and search engines is that there is no value in news except in the aggregate, as Google News, Digg, etc.That’s why these are tough times for newspapers and news organizations. However, I believe the long term outlook for journalism is excellent and that there is considerable value in journalism, much more than in the aggregators of news because the technology to do that is now a commodity. News is a value add that cannot be produced by algorithm and machine.The problem is that we don’t have a good way to recover the v[...]

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[Source: The Money Blogs]

If You Snooze You Lose

Foreclosures are up , Prices are up, Sales lag. Huh? Is the world going crazy? How is this possible? Despite heavy foreclosure data, and bad news, there is good news in the market. What are you going to believe? Whose...[...]

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[Source: The Money Blogs]

Financial Sector

I have written a lot about looking down the road to what might be coming, then following the event as it starts to play out and thinking about portfolio shifts in that context.One thing we all need to think about is that at some point the financial sector carnage will end. When it does it will make sense to go heavier into financials. This is not intended to be the usual shopping list hooey that you hear about on the network every time the market drops 1% but more about the idea that after what is shaking out as a real sector beatdown but that the group recover at some point in the[...]

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[Source: The Money Blogs]

Today’s Rally Not Being Fully Embraced

The rally has held up well, with the SPX still up +2% as of this writing. Despite the strength, there is still considerable skepticism on the Street.The VIX is still above 30The ARMS Index hit 1.36 todayThe CBOE put/call is at 1.22, an elevated levelThe ISEE Index is low at 127So there are few signs of renewed optimism with today’s events and market reaction. The wall of worry is as high as I can remember. According to Hays Advisory, the[...]

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[Source: The Money Blogs]

More evidence for Stop Placement

Recent volatility has been, well, extreme and the pictures below confirm the WHY behind traders ALWAYS USING STOPS when trading! So imagine a trader is short and went to bed short and up money in the position after deciding that yesterdays rally was [...]

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[Source: The Money Blogs]

Boston Residential Real Estate Condo Sales, August 18, 2007

The following information is from the local MLS database, as of August 18, 2007, compared to (August 11, 2007).Total of condos for sale in the city of Boston: 2,312,(2,311)Average of days on market: 127 (126)Median price of all condos for sale in the city of Boston: $379,900 ($379,900)Average price of all condos for sale in the city of Boston: $563,724 ($567,649)Number of condos sold (closed) over past 30 days: 510 (481)Median sales price, last 30 days: $370,565 ($377,500)Average sales price, last 30 days: $448,611 ($461,728)Avera[...]

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[Source: The Money Blogs]

Well, What?d You Expect? Fed Drops Rate Half A Point

Surprising no one, except me, the Federal Reserve dropped the discount rate half a point.The move Developing ...More: In Surprise Move, Fed Cuts Key Rate - NY TimesMore posts about: the federal reservethe federal reserve[...]

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[Source: The Money Blogs]

Friday, August 17, 2007

Post office closure 'blackmail'

Save our post offices:Headlines that include the word 'blackmail' show the murky depths to which the Post Office will go to hide the truth about closures

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[Source: This is Money | Money blog]

Help Me Sell This Home

The Boston Condo Guy was up in a skyscraper, today, and took a photo of Trinity Place.Trinity Place, for those who don’t know, is a 100-unit condo development built in 1999, overlooking Copley Square. Many units have grand views of the Back Bay, South End, and beyond, to the Blue Hills of Milton to the south and the Atlantic Ocean to the east.There are currently three units listed for sale in MLS. One of them is a 8,500 square foot penthouse condominium. Originally two units, they have been [...]

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[Source: The Money Blogs]

Is Buffett Bullish On The U.S. Economy?

Berkshire Hathaway, the holding company managed by the Oracle of Omaha, Warren Buffett, appears to be buying up additional shares of some the United States’ largest banks---Bank of America, Wells Fargo and U.S. Bancorp. In the company’s second quarter announcement, we learned that Berkshire has more that $10 billion invested in these three banks.Hold on! If you turn on the news or open up the newspaper (btw, Berkshire is also buying shares of Dow Jones, parent company of the Wa[...]

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[Source: The Money Blogs]

Guest Perspective: Edmonton From A Far (qatar)

People from all around the world come to this blog to find out information about the Edmonton real estate market. Almost everyday we see a little mark on Qatar on our stats and smile - Robert has been visiting the blog since its[...]

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[Source: The Money Blogs]

Need Your Prediction: How Far Will Rising Cost Of Jumbo Loans Drive Prices Down?

If you are a home buyer or seller reluctant to drop your asking price, MarketPlace.org’s segment tonight on jumbo loans is required listening: "Read More...

[Source: The Money Blogs]

It Was 30 Years Ago Today

In my never ending quest to put Elvis and real estate into the same post, today is the 30th anniversary of Elvis’ death, and I thought what better way to celebrate "Weep Week" than to write about Elvis Real Estate. Reno Fontana lives in one of two homes owned by Elvis when he died. The first, of course, is Graceland in Memphis. The second is the home in Palm Springs on Chino Canyon Road that Elvis and Priscilla bought on April 14, 1970.When Reno[...]

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[Source: The Money Blogs]

Confusion At The Transcript, Conspiracy At The Nc Times

San Diego Daily Transcript executive editor George Chamberlin, previously criticized here for his dubious fact-checking skills, took a stab at the topic of Collateralized Debt Obligations (CDOs) last week. The result was less than exemplary. From his Friday "Money in the Morning" column: Blame it on CDOs of ABS. That is the source of the problem[...]

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[Source: The Money Blogs]

Picnic-style Bubble Hour: "we’re Not In Kansas Any More"

What a week on Wall Street! How soon will housing prices in Boston respond to the credit crunch? That’s the subject we explored in our blog post last night[...]

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[Source: The Money Blogs]

Real Estate Briefs, 08/16/2007

A couple of stories in today’s papers.* Another one bites the dust, Wilbur Theatre goes dark (for the last time?) - Wilbur Theatre in Boston for sale,Thomas J Palmer, Jr., The Boston Globe* Fan Pier to hold kick-off party in September, my invitation lost in the mail - Fan Pier project nears start: Fallon to tackle tower first, Scott Van Voorhis, The Boston Herald* On spec of[...]

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[Source: The Money Blogs]

Education of a Trader

Throughout your personal trading journey I submit that you will find there are two distinct types of education:FORMAL EDUCATION on trading > > > This is typically obtained from books and seminars. This information iscritical as it appeals to the logical mind and is accepted based on thetraders belief or current references about that particular topic. FOR EXAMPLE: Trading with the tides shifting and the particularalignment of the moon with the other planets might be considered bysome to be total hogwash. Whil[...]

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[Source: The Money Blogs]

Tightening Lending Standards Squeeze The Rich, Even In Marin

Thanks to reader "Lisa" for the heads-up on this SF Chronicle article:Mortgage woes have moved upstream, landing even in tony neighborhoods.The credit crunch now is hitting home buyers from all wa[...]

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[Source: The Money Blogs]

Fed’s Poole Says Rate Cut Not On The Table

Fed governor Poole made comments last night that only a "calamity" would justify a rate cut. That sounds like more than just jawboning, as the Fed seems bent on not bailing out the mortgage companies, even if it means millions may lose their homes. But at the same time, the Fed injected another $17 billion into the market, which has pulled the overnight rate down near 5.0%. Isn’t this, by default, a de-facto easing in the market? If they are pressuring the fed funds rate down that much, why not just make an official cut?Overseas, Asi[...]

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[Source: The Money Blogs]

Huge Reversal For Stocks

I had to leave before the market closed, so I was thrilled when my colleague texted me in my meeting and told me the SPX recouped all of its losses.I though the action in the market was meaningful today. I am seeing tons of upsided reversals in stocks and etfs on enormous volume. This is usally meaningful technical action. Look at some of the price-volume action in the likes of: ITA, IAI, IDU, IYE, MXI, EFA, EEM, etc. They all look like exaustion selloffs to me. I would go so far as to say that I believe the market put in a sol[...]

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[Source: The Money Blogs]

Taking Profits On The Rest Of Our Short Positions

NOTE: Please click on the charts below to enlarge them if they do not appear clearly.Tuesday’s breakdown to new lows in the major indices led to another session of substantial broad-based losses yesterday. Stocks attempted to rally twice during the day, but massive sell programs hit the markets during the final two hours. The Nasdaq Composite fell 1.6%, the S&P 500 1.4%, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average 1.3%. The small-cap Russell 2000 and S&P Midcap 400 indices were lower by 1.5% and 2.1% respectively. Like the previous day, all of the primary stock market [...]

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[Source: The Money Blogs]

Wednesday, August 15, 2007

Down On The Open But Then What?

At least from this standpoint this morning but who knows what will creep up in the next hour and a half. Dow Diamonds (DIA) are trading at 12980 right now down about 60 points. Two things that may come into play this morning are the CPI. If its a good number it may give the fed room to set up for an easing down the road (October?). The other issue this morning are the energy markets which are higher this morning on tropical storm Dean and a depression in the the Gulf of Mexico. The latter will not have time to do much but Dean could be formidable down t[...]

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[Source: The Money Blogs]

Turnaround Tuesday To The Downside

Turnaround Tuesday to the DownsideBy Harry Boxer, The Technical Trader (www.thetechtrader.com) Today was turnaround Tuesday, as the market moved lower all session, closing at the lows for the day going away.The day started out with about 30 minutes of backing and filling nearthe zero line, but when no rally was apparent, they started sellingoff, broke initial support, and then sold off sharply to test supportlows. They did bounce late in the morning, but at lunch hour they werestymied at resistance near the intraday moving averages, and for th[...]

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[Source: The Money Blogs]

Through The Fly’s Eyes: Blue Nile

Blue Nile: Build-Your-Own-Diamond-RingsSo you need to buy some diamond jewelry, but don’t know anything about the market? That’s all right. There’s a place online that explains shape, cut, color, clarity, carat weight, certification and setting ... and then let’s you design your piece right there on the site. It’s the largest online diamond retailer in the [...]

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[Source: The Money Blogs]

When all you have is a hammer, everything looks like a nail.

The same can be applied to trading.When all you have is the "OPPORTUNITY" to trade, sometimes traders find themselves clicking into trades just to be involved with the markets.Do you find yourself making acceptances for your trades that are not in your plan? What causes this? Is it a need for action? Is it a need to be right? Is it a fear of missed opportunity? One[...]

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[Source: The Money Blogs]

Financials A Wall Of Worry

Wednesday gave us a sell off across the broader markets on mixed volume. The NYSE was on higher volume and the Nasdaq on light volume. Market breadth was incredibly heavy throughout the day, the VIX also closed up and now just a few points off the highs from last week. Crude started seeing some pressure off the storm brewing in the Gulf of Mexico and closed up 76 cents at $72.38 a barrel. Gold fell on the day down $1.20 at the bell to $679.70 an ounce. Semiconductor sector closed just over 78.6% retracement and fell out of the 4 day consolidation[...]

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[Source: The Money Blogs]

New Short-term Lows In The Major Indices

NOTE: Please click on the charts below to enlarge them if they do not appear clearly.After an uneventful two-day pause, stocks resumed their intermediate-term downtrends yesterday, causing several of the benchmark indexes to finish at fresh August lows. This time, there was not even an opening gap. The broad market began the day flat, then simply trended steadily lower throughout most of the session. Upon testing support of their August lows at mid-day, a few of the major indices attempted to reverse, but the rally was short-lived. The S&P 500 plunged 1.8%, the Nasd[...]

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[Source: The Money Blogs]

CNBC Interview Video

Here is the link to my interview on why quantitative models are losing money of late:[...]

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[Source: The Money Blogs]

Credit Crunch Is Hurting Investors

The credit crunch is starting to really affect investors as direct and indirect costs from the credit crisis compound other financing issues. The issues that Goldman Sach’s Global Equity Fund and giant LBO firm KKR are experiencing are excellent examples of how the problems spread. Goldman’s Global Equity Fund has been struggling as international stocks decline. To support the giant hedge fund Goldman and other partners are injecting $3 billion of new capital. This will reduce current[...]

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[Source: The Money Blogs]

Tuesday, August 14, 2007

When all you have is a hammer, everything looks like a nail.

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[Source: The Money Blogs]

Potayto Potahto

An interesting tone has developed in the comments lately, one that has come up before, about different approaches to market participation.The thing that gets lost in there sometimes is that there are many different methods of investing in the capital markets. If you spend time looking you will find research that says buying strength wins out. Spend a little more time and you will find research telling you to buy weakness. Same for selling strength and selling weakness.Research shows ways to trade a lot and have success while other research says to never trade. Then ther[...]

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[Source: The Money Blogs]

Saving Money. Its Simple, Really.

Saving money isn’t always easy so here’s a simple tip if you are buying a home now or in the near future - what you do with the money you save is up to you.The most important thing you can do from a financial perspective is reserve your interest rate with your lender. This can be done in minutes over the phone from your very own couch. If you don’t have a couch you could buy one with the money you save. Most lenders and mortgage brokers will give you a discount on the posted rate. Minimum discount should be .75% if you have a pulse, and much more if y[...]

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[Source: The Money Blogs]

Started The Week Digestive

Monday gave us a digestive narrow range rest day. The day started strong and gradually faded to close just off the lows on light volume. Leaving the second consecutive day for a drop in volume across the Nasdaq and NYSE. Which is giving the market time to consolidate and digest the past few weeks of extreme volatility. Gold closed the day down 60 cents at $681 an ounce and crude closed up 21 cents at $71.68 a barrel. Into Tuesday the market is set for a move and with early economic data we are likely to see volatility start in the pre marke[...]

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[Source: The Money Blogs]

No One Cries For The Confused Real Estate Agent

Question: I am a real-estate agent for Keller Williams and signed a contract with D.R. Horton for a new home in December for a purchase price of $581,811. We should be closing in October. I am scared to death since home prices have fallen and price reductions are being seen everywhere. New homes are sitting empty. Should I ask the builder for a price reduction? &8212; Darci Mahon, Maui, HawaiiAnswer: Dear Dar ... wait, what?I am a real-estate agent for Keller Williams ...You’re a real estate agent, yet you have this question?OMG.That[...]

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[Source: The Money Blogs]

Facebook Code Leaked, MSFT Makes $6b Buy

Facebook code published online[Guardian] The company blamed the leaked code on a "bug" that meant that it was published accidentally, and said users should not be concerned. Facebook’s spokeswoman, Brandee Barker, said: "It was not a security breach and did not compromise user data in any way."MSFT closes $6b acquisition of aQuantive"[TopTechNews] The move instantly gives Microsoft access to several on[...]

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[Source: The Money Blogs]

Resumption Of Downtrend In Oil Service Sector?

NOTE: Please click on the charts below to enlarge them if they do not appear clearly.Stocks gapped higher out of the starting gate yesterday morning, but subsequently drifted sideways to lower throughout the day. Selling pressure in the final fifteen minutes of trading caused the broad market to finish near the flat line and its intraday low. The Dow Jones Industrial Average was flat, while both the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite surrendered early gains of approximately 1% to finish 0.1% lower. The nearly unchanged S&P 500 left the index glued to its 200-day MA for[...]

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[Source: The Money Blogs]

Monday, August 13, 2007

Fed Is Likely To Rule The Week

Friday closed with a mixed finish after the Fed tried to ease credit fears with an infusion of money. The broader indexes did managed to come off early weakness and close mid range, but only the S&P 500 closed green on the day. The week did close higher across the broader markets and overall left us in the same range as the prior week. Volume Friday was significantly lower than Thursdays and the week was lower on the Nasdaq and higher on the NYSE. Nasdaq Composite closed just over the 200dma and the weeks lows. Nasdaq 100 made new lows Frida[...]

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[Source: The Money Blogs]

200-Day MAs Take Center Stage

NOTE: Please click on the charts below to enlarge them if they do not appear clearly.Following through on the previous day’s downward momentum, stocks initially got off to a rough start last Friday morning, but the tone subsequently improved a bit. All of the major indices oscillated in a wide, choppy range throughout the day before finishing with mixed results. The Dow Jones Industrial Average, down 1.6% at its intraday low, recovered to lose only 0.2%. The Nasdaq Composite fell 0.5%, but the S&P 500 eked out a gain of less than 0.1%. The small-cap Russell 2000 adv[...]

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[Source: The Money Blogs]

Instead Of Thinking About Tomorrow, You?re Neglecting It

I messed up this week.Its like I wasnt hungry last week so I decided not to buy any groceries for this week either. Of course, now Im starving. Im angry that the cupboard is empty, and now Im kicking myself. Why didnt I think ahead last week? Why didnt I buy anything to eat?We make these dumb mistakes all the time. Instead of thinking about tomorrow, we neglect it. For example, every week that you put off investing $20,000 at 5%, you miss a gain of $84. (How long does it take you to earn $84 at work? Probably less than the time it would have[...]

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[Source: The Money Blogs]

Marketing A Home In The 21st Century

Yesterday, the Globe ran a story on a property for sale at 55 Monmouth Street, in East Boston.About its interior, it said this:The handsome entry has been restored with the oak and glass French doors typical of the Second Empire style. The overhang above them is supported by elaborately carved brackets. The clapboards are painted mossy green and the architectural details in the creamy white trim are accentuated with dark red.Inside, room[...]

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[Source: The Money Blogs]

August 13th Blogger Sentiment Poll

Is the correction over? The bulls are back and futures are up. Read More...

[Source: The Money Blogs]

Alberta's Jobless Rate Hits Record Low Again

There is concern in this province that layoffs will start to become the norm as the economy slows down. Looks like at least for now, Alberta is good to go, once again leading the country in job growth and pushing the national jobless rate to a 33 year low. Here is a summary from the Financial Post, with a link to the full article below.Canada’s unemployment rate fell to its lowest level since 1974 in July, while average wages rose, both strong indicators the Bank of Canada will hike interest rates next month.Statistics Canada reported Friday that the jobless rate fell to [...]

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[Source: The Money Blogs]

Sabotage Trading

Some Thoughts About Self Sabotage; Are You Sabotaging Yourself?by Dr. Van K. TharpI thought it would be interesting to do another exercise to help you look at some of your own self-sabotage. To do so, consider the following six items.Meditation Exercise:Spend about twenty minutes just watching your breathing. When you watch your breathing, you may notice that thoughts come into your head. When they do, simply notice them and release them and then return to watching your thoughts. When you keep that up for 20 minutes, you might notice a number o[...]

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[Source: The Money Blogs]

Nasdaq: Normal Correction Or Top?

History has shown the Nasdaq has been the most volatile of the major indexes. Although the last 4 weeks haven’t been pretty the Nasdaq has only dropped a maximum of -8.5% since peaking in mid July at 2725. Since the late 2002 bottom the Nasdaq has been making a series of higher Highs (points A) and higher Lows (points B) while maintaining its longer term up trend. Meanwhile notice the last three major corrections have ranged from -15.2% to -18.7% with an average loss of nearly -15%. Thus the Nasdaq could still drop another 5% to 8% and st[...]

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[Source: The Money Blogs]

VIX: Finding Market Resistence

I’m a real believer in using the vix to time trades in the market whether from an interday or intraday perspective. On August 8th after a two day rally in the markets the vix had moved down to around 19.65 from an earlier peak around 26. I was somewhat baffled by the rally. I do not think this downdraft is a normal corrective movement in the equity markets. The financials are clearly in trouble. Still, in the early part of the week my short positions were being taken out. I had pretty much violated my discipline for daytrading. I had become strongly biased to the short side and I was [...]

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[Source: The Money Blogs]

Sunday, August 12, 2007

Save The Implode-o-meter

When the Mortgage Lender Implode-O-Meter first hit the blogosphere I didn’t post about it. Instead, I just listed it over in the right-hand margin of this blog. I figured since this blog was winding down and most every other housing blog posted on it, that anyone who cared already knew about it. Even during its
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[Source: The Money Blogs]